So... Who Done It? In the style of Sam Spade or Perry Mason..[spoiler]

[Mira]

  On the final page of Changes Harry gets shot by a sniper on the Water Beetle.. 
  Who done it?  Okay, when someone murders someone else a couple of things usually are in play..
  1]Motive
   2] Opportunity

  Lots of people, creatures have a motive to kill Harry.  Opportunity is another matter..

So who done it?  It goes to opportunity..1] Which means whoever or what ever did it, had to have known about the "Way" opened that returned Harry and company to the store room of St Mary's Church..  That wasn't the Way that Harry used to get to Chichen Itzel from Chicago.. So who ever the sniper was, had to have known where Harry would arrive in Chicago, to follow him.  2] Or knew that Thomas had given Harry the key to the Water Beetle, and waited there for his/her/it's ambush..

Using this logic it shortens the list of would be killers quite a bit, I think.
  Possible would be killers;
  1] Anyone of the twelve on the Gray Council.. Assuming it was one of them who "" with Lea, so she could open that Way to St Mary's in Chicago.
   2] Lea, she opened the Way..
   3] Thomas, because he gave the keys to the Water Beetle to Harry. 
    4] Sanya, he was given the keys by Thomas to give to Harry.
    5] Murphy, she was going to meet Harry on the Water Beetle.
     6] Lara, because she knows, especially now what Thomas is up to.
    7] Kincaid, simply because the Archive would have the knowledge of where Harry would be.
     8] Ivy
Yeah, I know there were attempts to kill Harry by persons or creatures unknown since Proven Guilty, but how would they know when or where Harry would emerge form Chichen Izu, or know that he'd go to stay on the Water Beetle..

So let's go over our suspects in reverse order..
     8] Ivy, Harry gave her a name, he risked a lot to save her, why would Ivy want to kill Harry?  Perhaps to free him from Mab?  In which case she'd order Kincaid to do it.. Add her to the short list..
    7] Kincaid, he has the talent, the will, and could do it coldly.. But does he have a motive?  I don't think he does, unless Ivy ordered him to do it, then he wouldn't hesitate.. short list, hired by Ivy.
     6] Lara, yup she is capable, though I believe she'd hire a hit man to do it for her.. Motive? Thomas is getting useful to her again, and she doesn't want Harry to put conflict in his head again. Harry is getting all together too powerful, he wiped out the Red Court, she saw him at work in the Deeps, she fears for the White Court, Harry must die... However would she have knowledge of the Way that Lea opened into St Mary's?  No.. Would she have known that Thomas gave the keys to the Water Beetle to Harry, so he'd have a place to stay?  Very possible she might.. Add her to the very short list..
     5] Murphy, she has the knowledge, she has the skills, but I'd be very shocked if she did it.
      4] Sanya, he has the Knowledge, he has the skills.. Don't see him doing it, unless he was under orders from Uriel to do it in order to free Harry from Mab.. Add Sanya to the short list.
      3] Thomas, he gave Harry the keys to the Water Beetle.. Knowledge, yes, skills, hell yes, motive to kill his brother? Whom he promised their mother to protect?  Not likely..
      2] Lea, she arranged for the Way to be open so they could return to Chicago via St Mary's.. So Lea knew where they were going.. I don't think anyone told her about the Water Beetle, but she is high Sidhe, cannot hide that knowledge from her..   I don't see Lea doing the act herself, her Queen would kill her for that, but to save her godson, whom she promised to protect for Margaret? She might order it done, because Lea knows that the deal between Mab and Harry won't work out.. Turning him into a hound won't protect him this time, so she orders him killed, to get him out of the Winter Knight deal..
Put her on the short list.
     1] The Gray Council, other than Odin and  Eb, we have no clue who is on it..  If one of them was who Lea negotiated with to open the Way, I believe we may have our attempted killer.. The only two we know so far of the Council is Eb.. Would he try to kill Harry to save him from Mab?  Capable, yes, but would he?  I don't think so.. Odin? If anyone could pull it off and then take care of Harry after death it would be him.. Add Odin to the short list  Another possible member of the Gray Council, the Merlin.
   Actually he may be at the top of my short list.. He doesn't care for Harry.  He doesn't approve of Harry's methods, thinks he is too much like his mom.  Now that Harry is also Winter Knight and a powerful wizard, he might be seen as a real threat to the White Council.  In Turncoat, he wanted Harry to placed under watch after he made Demonreach a Sanctum.. Hints that the Merlin might be part of the Gray Council, when Harry sees him in the bar back at headquarters,  the Merlin is decked out for combat.. When Harry didn't show up for the meeting with the Gray Council, Eb said it made the Council leery of Harry.. Motives enough I think.. Add him to the short list.

So here are our final suspects using this logic..
   The Merlin
    Odin
    Lea
    Sanya
    Lara
    Kincaid [if order to do it by Ivy]
    Ivy
    Unknown, as in remaining ten members of the Gray Council.. Whomever it was Lea made arrangements with to open the Way to St Mary's..

   Motives? Two, as far as I can tell..
      1] Harry getting way too powerful with taking on the mantle of Winter Knight.. Someone felt him to be a threat and took him out or had him taken out..
       2] An attempt to free Harry from Mab..  A] The suspect feels Harry is better dead than Winter Knight B] The suspect has a way or the power to bring Harry back from the dead..

   So given this information, who done it?
   
   

[Kebran]

First I think you still need a (SPOILERS) tag.

  We are all assuming that Kincade is still under contract.  What if his contract HAPPENED to run out the night everything went down and he was hired by another entity? Further you did not add Marcone to the list.  I think he had a major part in doing this. Either through his own initiative or through a deal with Mab.  A super conspiracy would be Mab gets Marcone to do the hit and he hires Kincade to do it.

[Mira]

First I think you still need a (SPOILERS) tag.

  We are all assuming that Kincade is still under contract.  What if his contract HAPPENED to run out the night everything went down and he was hired by another entity? Further you did not add Marcone to the list.  I think he had a major part in doing this. Either through his own initiative or through a deal with Mab.  A super conspiracy would be Mab gets Marcone to do the hit and he hires Kincade to do it.

  Marcone isn't on the list, because he wasn't at Chichen Itzel was not there when Lea open the Way straight to St Mary's.  No where anywhere where Harry began the trip to Chichen Itzel..  While he may have known that Harry got burnt out of his place, he didn't know where he was staying on the Water  Beetle.  He may want to kill Harry or have someone do it more to the point, but he has to find Harry first.

But you right, I forgot about Gard..  Under orders from Odin, but his is on the short list..
Kincaid is still on the list, but don't think he'd do anything he'd do anything to Harry without Ivy's blessing.

[patpat]

  Marcone isn't on the list, because he wasn't at Chichen Itzel was not there when Lea open the Way straight to St Mary's.

Any mundane PI following Murphey (a known associate) back to the church from the FBI building would not have seen Lea's limo arrive or depart if I'm reading the overtaking of a siren blaring police car right, therefore it is possible that someone might have started a stakeout which ended when Harry took a cab to the Water Beetle.

Doesn't mean Marcone did it, but I think it does mean we can't rule out anyone who could hire a mortal PI, which the past few books shows to be everyone.

[Mira]

Any mundane PI following Murphey (a known associate) back to the church from the FBI building would not have seen Lea's limo arrive or depart if I'm reading the overtaking of a siren blaring police car right, therefore it is possible that someone might have started a stakeout which ended when Harry took a cab to the Water Beetle.

Doesn't mean Marcone did it, but I think it does mean we can't rule out anyone who could hire a mortal PI, which the past few books shows to be everyone.

Actually, after reading Even Hand, and Marcone's attitude in Changes, I believe that he didn't hire a detective, but a hit man to kill Harry.  Though I am not sure why.

[ballplayer72]

First I think you still need a (SPOILERS) tag.

  We are all assuming that Kincade is still under contract.  What if his contract HAPPENED to run out the night everything went down and he was hired by another entity? Further you did not add Marcone to the list.  I think he had a major part in doing this. Either through his own initiative or through a deal with Mab.  A super conspiracy would be Mab gets Marcone to do the hit and he hires Kincade to do it.

why would mab do it?   She got what she wanted as evidenced by her broadcasting the two of them mid coitus while she screams "MINE MINE MINE" to her entire population.  Seems unlikely that she'd have him offed right before he starts his first day on the job.   She also wouldn't need to hire someone to do it.  Mab can squish harry like a bug, mantle or no mantle. Why have him shot?    If she wanted him dead she'd do it herself (notice slate and how in to doing it herself she was.) then bring him back to life and do it again til she got bored with it.
I don't think mabbers has motive.  In fact if we can surely rule someone out I'd go with mabbers.

[Magnus]

Yes, what about Marcone hired Kincaid to kill Harry.

[ballplayer72]

Yes, what about Marcone hired Kincaid to kill Harry.

not sure kincaid would allow himself to be hired away from ivy.  I'm also not sure that he would even take a job on harry.  Remember harry did him a serious solid in SmF.   And ivy seems attached to mr dresden and his kitty.  Kincaid isn't into doing things that hurt ivy, especially the human, little girl part of ivy (remember the otters?).   Killing harry would hurt ivy. Murphy as well and you can be fairly sure he doesn't want that either.
Not only that but I don't think he'd eliminate a potential ally to call upon.  Or want to piss ebenezer off even further than he already has by offing his apprentice. 

Its not a smart move, and kincaid doesn't make non smart moves.

[tonync66]

not sure kincaid would allow himself to be hired away from ivy.  I'm also not sure that he would even take a job on harry.  Remember harry did him a serious solid in SmF.   And ivy seems attached to mr dresden and his kitty.  Kincaid isn't into doing things that hurt ivy, especially the human, little girl part of ivy (remember the otters?).   Killing harry would hurt ivy. Murphy as well and you can be fairly sure he doesn't want that either.
Not only that but I don't think he'd eliminate a potential ally to call upon.  Or want to piss ebenezer off even further than he already has by offing his apprentice. 

Its not a smart move, and kincaid doesn't make non smart moves.

Unless of course you follow the line of thinking expressed by Luccio that Harry by giving Ivy a name..and continuing friendship has somehow compromised the Archive and made her into something dangerous.  If Kincaid agrees with this sentiment and frowns on Harry's continued use of Ivy by calling her for information that causes her a great deal of inner Turmoil then I can see Kincaid agreeing to pop the proverbial cap in Dresden.

[ballplayer72]

Unless of course you follow the line of thinking expressed by Luccio that Harry by giving Ivy a name..and continuing friendship has somehow compromised the Archive and made her into something dangerous.  If Kincaid agrees with this sentiment and frowns on Harry's continued use of Ivy by calling her for information that causes her a great deal of inner Turmoil then I can see Kincaid agreeing to pop the proverbial cap in Dresden.

Thus causing even more inner turmoil because he just shot the guy who rescued her from the denarians when no one else would?   The guy who was going to let himself be shot in the head or tortured by said denarians in the aquarium so he wouldn't give her position away?    The same guy who was thoughtful enough of her as a person to write her a note telling her he was coming to rescue her so she would have hope? 
Not buying that at all.

More than that, kincaid doesn't seem to mind that harry named her. In fact he seems to share an even greater affection for her than harry does, remember he wouldn't let her be interrupted while she was being a little girl with the otters?  Remember when he finally got her back he slept in the same bed with her and a gun on his chest so he'd KNOW she was safe.  Like a parent.    I just don't see it.

[Magnus]

And if it was Kincaid it would also explain the accuracy of the shot, remember that Harry pointed out that Kincaid NEVER missed.

[ballplayer72]

And if it was Kincaid it would also explain the accuracy of the shot, remember that Harry pointed out that Kincaid NEVER missed.

kincaid also always went for headshots.  If he was going to do harry, it wouldve been a headshot.   

[Mira]

kincaid also always went for headshots.  If he was going to do harry, it wouldve been a headshot.   

  Any hitman could do it and Marcone now has the "magic" bullets.  What came as a shock at the end of Even Hand was Marcone saying that he and Harry would go at it one day and he was now ready he thought to take Harry down.  But as an Accord signer, isn't Marcone an ally of the White Council now?  One more point, Marcone saw the action against Mag as a prep for when he went against Harry... Wonder if Harry becoming the WK threw a monkey wrench into his plans, so Marcone sent the hitman to take him out before Harry really settled into his new job?

[logarithm.and.blues]

As far as motives go, I'm going with 2B. What I came up with was that either Harry's gonna be dead temporarily ('cause there's no way Jim would kill him off permanently; that just wouldn't make sense) or this supposed death will just be a close shave. From the name of the next book, I'd say he becomes a ghost temporarily and then someone brings him back ('cause he's not gonna drift on as a ghost for the next 8 novels) 'cause they're trying to help him get out of being the Winter Knight.

[Piotr1600]

  Any hitman could do it and Marcone now has the "magic" bullets. 

One magic bullet that prostrated Gard for 3 weeks to make. That seem to me to make the 'magic bullet' prohibitively rare and extremely costly.

What came as a shock at the end of Even Hand was Marcone saying that he and Harry would go at it one day and he was now ready he thought to take Harry down.  But as an Accord signer, isn't Marcone an ally of the White Council now?  One more point, Marcone saw the action against Mag as a prep for when he went against Harry... Wonder if Harry becoming the WK threw a monkey wrench into his plans, so Marcone sent the hitman to take him out before Harry really settled into his new job?

For me after reading Even Hand, Marcone being behind the shooting doesn't ring true at all.
Marcone is all about planning. Hence the development of multiple new safehouses. And given the story as 'proof' that the indepth defenses worked, he'd have to stop thinking defensively at all to make what amounts to an improvised play.  Why? Because  judging from the depth of his defenses, and the opening line of "Location, location, location" - he completely expects that in order to off Harry, he'll be required to wear him down with multiple serious attacks.

Besides... Marcone seems to me to be aware that as long as he doesn't provoke Harry in some overt fashion - like say by attacking him or his friends - then Harry pretty much always has bigger fish to fry...